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Smuggling and Weak Economy Reduce Demand for Oil Supply

Pakistan’s oil demand drops 21.9% July-March in 2022-23 fiscal year.

Energy analysts attributed the low demand to the excessive smuggling of Iranian oil products, sluggish economic growth, limitations on opening Letters of Credit for imports, and rising oil costs.

In Pakistan recent fiscal year 2022–2023, the price of petroleum products surged to a record high.

Iranian petroleum products that had been smuggled into Pakistan overflowed the market, forcing regional oil refineries to reduce production as consumer demand fell.

The overall demand for petroleum products decreased 21.9% to 13.1 million tones in the first nine months (July-March) of FY23 compared to 16.7 tones in the same period of FY22, according to the Economic Survey, which was released by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Thursday. The total demand for the previous fiscal year was 23.1 million tones.

Furnace oil, high-speed diesel (HSD), motor spirit (petrol) and high octane blended component (HOBC) demand declines may be to blame for the downward trend. More than 95% of all demand is for these things.

Consumer demand increased by 18% during the reviewed period just for jet fuel (JP-1 and JP-8).

The transport and electricity sectors, which accounted for almost 90% of total demand, were important consumer groups.

The fall in furnace oil consumption resulted from power producing facilities switching to re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG), coal, and other alternative sources, whereas the decrease in motor spirit and HSD use may be related to high pricing.

Pakistan, a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products, brought in 6.1 million tones of oil-related goods worth $5.7 billion from July to March of FY23.

Electricity

The total installed electrical generating capacity of the nation was 41,000 megawatts, with hydroelectric share of 25.8%, a thermal share of 58.8%, a nuclear share of 8.6%, and a renewable share of 6.8%.

Over the past few years, the proportion of thermal as the main source of energy supply has decreased, indicating a greater reliance on domestic sources.

In contrast, a combined 53.8% of the 94,121 GWh of total power production came from hydro, nuclear, and renewable sources, which the Economic Survey deemed “a good sign for the economy and the environment.”

Mineral sector

The power sector coal consumption for the period of July to March FY23 was around 47.3% (7.29 million tones), compared to 31.1% (4.80 million tones) for the cement and other industries. Brick kilns, on the other hand, used 21.5% (3.32 million tones).

Power consumption

The overall amount of power used in FY23 from July to March was 84,034 GWh. The largest user of this was the residential sector, which used 39,200 GWh (46.6%), followed by the industrial sector, which used 23,687 GWh (28.2%).

Additionally, consumption in the commercial, general services, and other government sectors was 7,664 GWh (9.1%), while consumption in the agricultural and commercial sectors was 6,906 GWh (8.2%) and 6,576 GWh (7.8%), respectively.

Gas sector

About 29.3% (FY21) of the nation overall primary energy mix was provided by locally produced natural gas.

To meet the needs of more than 10.7 million consumers, Pakistan has a vast gas network with 13,775 km of transmission, 157,395 km of main and 41,352 km of service pipes.

The average daily use of natural gas from July through March of FY23 was roughly 3,258 million cubic feet (mmcfd), including 631 mmcfd of RLNG.

The two gas utilities in the nation (Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited and Sui Southern Gas Company) installed 225 km of transmission lines, 1,170 km of main lines and 63 km of service lines over the same time period, tying 92 villages and towns into the national gas network.

Additionally, 7,102 new gas connections were made available nationally, including 5,068 home, 1,948 commercial, and 86 industrial ones.

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